January 2027 energy price cap: what the forecasts say (and what to do now)
Short version: energy bills are forecast to rise again on 1 January 2027. Nobody knows the exact figure yet — Ofgem confirms it by 25 November 2026. But every major forecast points up, and the gap between them is worth understanding.
Where the cap is now
From 1 October 2026 the price cap is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit.
That’s not a limit on your bill. The cap limits the rates suppliers can charge on standard variable tariffs. Use more energy than “typical” and you pay more.
The January forecasts
| Forecaster | Predicted January cap | Rise vs £1,723 |
|---|---|---|
| Cornwall Insight | £1,999 | +£276 (+16%) |
| Average of British Gas, EDF & E.ON Next (via Uswitch, 23 Sep) | ~£2,117 | +£394 (+23%) |
| EDF (reported 17 Sep) | £2,165 | +£442 (+26%) |
Annual figures for a typical dual-fuel household on Direct Debit. Forecasts are updated regularly — dates shown where known.
So the honest answer is: somewhere between roughly £2,000 and £2,165 on current forecasts. Cornwall Insight is the lowest. Even its figure would be the biggest cap rise in about four years.
Why the forecasts differ
- Timing. The January cap is based on wholesale prices between 19 August and 18 November. Forecasts made earlier in that window are working with less data.
- Method. Ofgem updated the “typical” consumption figures it uses. Cornwall’s forecast on the old consumption values comes out at about £2,107 — closer to the others.
- Wholesale volatility. Gas prices have been pushed up by the US–Iran conflict, and that can move fast in either direction before 18 November.
What it means for a typical household
Taking the range above, a typical household on a standard variable tariff could pay roughly £23 to £37 more per month (annualised) from January. Winter months cost more than average because you use more.
Who this affects
- Standard variable / default tariffs: your rates move with the cap on 1 January.
- Fixed tariffs: your unit rates and standing charges are locked until the fix ends. Check your end date.
- Northern Ireland: separate market, not covered by Ofgem’s cap.
What to do before January
- Find your current tariff. Is it variable or fixed? When does a fix end? What are your unit rates and standing charges? It’s all on your bill or app.
- Check your actual usage. Your kWh over the last 12 months matters more than “typical” figures.
- Compare fixed deals against the forecast — not today’s cap. A fix that looks pricier than £1,723 may still beat a January cap of £2,000+.
- Read the exit fees. If prices fall later, a fix with low or no exit fees gives you a way out.
- Submit a meter reading on 31 December (unless you have a working smart meter), so you’re not charged January rates for December usage.
What happens next
Ofgem announces the official January 2027 cap by 25 November. I’ll update this guide the same day with the confirmed figure, how it compares to these forecasts, and which fixed deals are worth a look.
Sources (checked 16 October 2026): Cornwall Insight forecast as reported by Rest Less and Money to the Masses; EDF and Uswitch forecasts as reported by IBTimes UK; Ofgem assessment-period dates via MoneySavingExpert. Always confirm current figures at ofgem.gov.uk.